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- November 24, 1990
-
- 61CYCLE.ASC
- --------------------------------------------------------------------
- this file courtesy of the Darkside at 314-644-6705
- --------------------------------------------------------------------
-
- A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory
-
- by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
- P.O. Box 161
- Kirkland, Washington 98033
-
- The Knowles family CE-II encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO on the
- Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia January 20th was right on
- target in terms of time and place, according to the 61-month wave
- cycle first proposed by Dr. David Saunders back in 1971. At least
- two other UFO encounters of major importance occurred that same
- night in Australia and Tasmania.
-
- If the indications are correct and this is not an isolated incident
- but the beginnings of a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
- the significance of this long-term prediction in terms of our
- ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of this and future
- UFO waves.
-
- Dr. David Saunders first noticed the regularity in major American
- UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967) in the early months of 1971
- while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at the University of
- Colorado.
-
- He determined that what distinguished these UFO waves from other,
- possibly publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their
- distributions.
-
- These were waves of UFO reports in which the frequency of daily
- reports began building slowly, built to a crescendo, and then
- diminished rapidly. These negatively-skewed UFO waves occurred
- with a periodicity of five years, or more accurately 61-months, with
- an accuracy in peak prediction to within a day or so (1).
-
- Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year waves was the
- progressively eastward movement of their loci of activity.
-
- The first wave crested in July 1947 and occurred predominantly in
- the Pacific and Mountain States. The 1952 wave reached its peak in
- late August 1952 with the majority of reports coming from Midwestern
- States.
-
- Page 1
-
- Each successive wave appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east
- in longitude.
-
- The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted for by a search of South
- American references which revealed a Brazilian and Argentinian UFO
- wave in September, and the 1967 wave--which began on the Eastern
- seaboard of the United States--actually crested in November of that
- year in England.
-
- Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major UFO wave
- would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East longitude and peak in
- December 1972 over a year prior to its occurrence.
-
- This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of a UFO wave in
- South Africa in late November. However, most ufologists lost
- interest in the theory when the predicted waves for 1977-78 and 1983
- failed to materialize (so far as we can tell).
-
- Both of these waves should have occurred in countries controlled
- predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West.
-
- Saunders continues to have faith in the theory and has offered a
- consistent, convincing response to critics: that it is unfair to
- judge the merits of the theory on what we may or may not hear about
- from the Soviet Union.
-
- According to calculations (see table below), the next great UFO wave
- should occur between now and the beginning of March, centered at 120
- degrees East longitude. The Nullarbor Plain is at approximately 127
- degrees East longitude.
-
- The wave should also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the
- earlier waves, building slowly in intensity in the number of daily
- reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.
-
- Table 1
-
- The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves
-
- Predicted Actual Peak Predicted Actual
- Date Date Longitude Location
-
- July 1947 July 8, 1947 120o W Northwestern U.S.
- Aug. 1952 Aug. 3, 1952 90o W Central & Eastern U.S.
- Sep. 1957 Aug. 21, 1957 60o W Central & Eastern U.S.
- Oct. 1962 Sep. 1962 30o W Brazil
- Nov. 1967 Oct. 24, 1967 0o W Atlantic, England
- Dec. 1972 Nov. 1972 30o E South Africa
- Jan. 1978 ? 60o E ?
- Feb. 1983 ? 90o E ?
- Mar. 1988 Feb. 1988(?) 120o E Australia(?)
- Apr. 1993 150o E Guam(?)
-
- A corrollary to the Saunders' spatio-temporal wave theory is that
- physical evidence cases should occur at approximately the same time
- world-wide; thus, if the Australian close encounters continue to
- occur during the pre-dawn hours, we should expect U.S. CE-II cases
- to occur in the evening hours between 4 and 10 p.m., since the
- United States and Australia have a time difference of some 8 to 11
- hours.
- Page 2
-
- We shall soon see if new evidence merits the revival of an old
- theory.
-
-
- (1) Saunders, D.R. (1976). A spatio-temporal invariant for major
- UFO waves. In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
- CUFOS Conference. Evanston, IL: Center for UFO Studies.
-
- --------------------------------------------------------------------
- Vangard Note
-
- We received a call from a fellow working in GUAM...he had
- a photocopy of the 61CYCLE article and had projected the
- next UFO flap to occur in that region of the world.
-
- So, there is now a worldmap (61CYCLE.GIF) showing all the
- cycles from 1947 to what should follow for 1993 and 1998.
-
- Note, the flaps are projected to occur every 5 years
- (61 months) and at 30 degree longitude intervals as they
- cross the globe. They are not exact.
-
- The fellow who called wondered if any person or group
- might wish to monitor this area to collect data in the
- event this cycle can be predicted.
-
- --------------------------------------------------------------------
-
- If you have comments or other information relating to such topics
- as this paper covers, please upload to KeelyNet or send to the
- Vangard Sciences address as listed on the first page.
- Thank you for your consideration, interest and support.
-
- Jerry W. Decker.........Ron Barker...........Chuck Henderson
- Vangard Sciences/KeelyNet
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- If we can be of service, you may contact
- Jerry at (214) 324-8741 or Ron at (214) 242-9346
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